Why Is Bitcoin Going Up? Peter Brandt’s Take on the Current Rally

2025-04-21

Explore Peter Brandt’s perspective on Bitcoin’s recent price action, key technical signals, and what could drive BTC’s next move in 2025.

Why is Bitcoin Going Up? A Comment from Peter Brandt

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has recently captured attention as it breaks out of a multi-month downtrend and hovers near historic highs. While many analysts are calling this a bullish signal, veteran trader Peter Brandt offers a more nuanced perspective on Bitcoin’s current rally and where it could be headed next.

Bitcoin Technical Breakout Meets Skepticism

In April 2025, Bitcoin managed to break above a long-standing downtrend and successfully retested this level as support—a move often seen as a precursor to further gains. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted this bullish pattern, noting that BTC had held above the new support for several days.

However, Peter Brandt responded with skepticism, using a yawn emoji on social media and likening Bitcoin’s current price action to “little boxes on the hillside,” suggesting the market has been moving sideways rather than trending strongly upward.

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Bitcoin Range-Bound Trading and Decision Point

Over the past month, Bitcoin has traded within a tight range between $75,000 and $88,000, repeatedly testing support near $74,000 and resistance just below $90,000. Despite a brief rally to $85,909, BTC has mostly fluctuated between $82,765 and $86,491, reflecting a period of indecision and consolidation. According to on-chain data from Glassnode, the Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator has reset to its long-term median, signaling that Bitcoin is at a key decision point for bulls and bears alike.

Halving Cycle and Brandt’s Long-Term View

Peter Brandt’s broader analysis is rooted in Bitcoin’s historical halving cycles, which have traditionally marked the start of major bull runs. He projects that, if past patterns hold, Bitcoin could reach as high as $130,000 to $150,000 by September 2025.

However, Brandt also cautions that each cycle’s gains have diminished over time—a phenomenon he calls “exponential decay”—and he estimates there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already peaked for this cycle.

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What Could Drive Bitcoin Higher?

Halving Event: The most recent Bitcoin halving in April 2024 reduced miner rewards, historically leading to supply shocks and price increases.
Market Sentiment: Despite sideways movement, investor interest remains high, with significant trading volumes and open interest in derivatives markets6.
Macro Factors: Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and broader economic trends continue to influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Bitcoin Price: Risks and Alternative Scenarios

Brandt warns that if Bitcoin fails to break above its previous all-time high and instead drops below $55,000, a sharp and lasting decline could follow. He emphasizes that technical analysis, while useful, is not infallible and that investors should be prepared for both bullish and bearish outcomes.

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FAQ

1. Why has Bitcoin’s price been moving sideways recently?

BTC has been consolidating between $75,000 and $88,000, with neither bulls nor bears taking clear control, according to Peter Brandt and on-chain data.