Ripple vs SEC Speculation: Prediction of Ripple's Absolute Winning Probability
2025-02-03
Ripple’s long-standing legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been a defining chapter in crypto regulation.
Now, with the SEC removing Ripple’s case from its website, speculation is rising about a potential conclusion. Could Ripple finally emerge victorious?
Based on recent developments, the probability of Ripple’s success stands around 90%, driven by shifts in the regulatory environment and legal proceedings. In this article, we’ll explore why Ripple’s chances are this strong and what it means for XRP’s future.
The SEC’s Legal Shift: A Sign of Ripple’s Advantage?
The crypto world was abuzz when the SEC quietly removed its civil lawsuit against Ripple from its official website.
Source: SEC
Many speculated this meant the case was dismissed. However, legal experts clarified that the case has simply moved to the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, as it progresses through the judicial system.
But why does this matter? This procedural shift reflects more than just legal housekeeping. It signals that the SEC’s aggressive stance against Ripple is softening.
Under the leadership of acting SEC Chair Mark Uyeda, known for his crypto-friendly outlook, the agency appears less focused on enforcement through litigation and more inclined towards regulatory clarity. This change alone boosts Ripple’s winning odds significantly.
Jeremy Hogan, a prominent legal expert, confirmed that while the case remains active, no new filings have been made beyond the appeal process.
The SEC’s appeal focuses on overturning a district court ruling that favoured Ripple, especially regarding XRP’s programmatic sales not being classified as securities.
Ripple, however, seems confident, as the company prepares to solidify its prior victory with a strong legal response due in April 2025.
Legal Precedents and Court Dynamics: Why Ripple Holds the Upper Hand
Ripple’s legal battle has set precedents that now work in its favour. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP is not a security when sold to retail investors, a partial victory that sent positive ripples through the crypto industry.
While Ripple was fined $125 million for institutional sales violations, the court denied the SEC’s requests for additional penalties, signalling judicial scepticism towards the SEC’s broad claims.
The SEC’s case hinges on the Howey Test, used to determine what constitutes a security. However, Ripple successfully argued that XRP’s decentralised nature and its role as a digital currency do not meet the Howey criteria, especially in secondary market sales.
This distinction weakens the SEC’s position, making it harder to argue that all XRP transactions fall under securities regulations.
Moreover, the SEC’s track record in similar cases doesn’t inspire confidence. Past enforcement actions, like those against Telegram and Kik, faced setbacks due to the SEC’s inconsistent application of securities laws to digital assets.
Ripple’s legal team, well-versed in these dynamics, has strategically positioned its arguments to exploit these inconsistencies.
With the case now in the appellate court, the burden of proof shifts further onto the SEC. Appeals courts are less likely to overturn factual findings from lower courts unless there’s clear evidence of legal errors.
This legal environment, combined with Ripple’s solid defence, contributes to the high probability, which is around 90%, of Ripple winning the case.
The Changing Regulatory Climate: A Boost for Ripple’s Case
Beyond the courtroom, the broader regulatory climate in the U.S. has shifted in Ripple’s favour. The appointment of Mark Uyeda as acting SEC Chair marks a departure from the previous administration’s aggressive approach.
Uyeda has been vocal about the need for clear, constructive crypto regulations, criticising the SEC’s reliance on enforcement actions to shape industry standards.
This regulatory pivot aligns with growing bipartisan support for crypto-friendly policies in Congress.
Lawmakers are increasingly advocating for comprehensive legislation that distinguishes between different types of digital assets, reducing the SEC’s authority to classify cryptocurrencies as securities arbitrarily.
Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, has highlighted this shift as a potential game-changer.
He believes the SEC may eventually drop its appeal, focusing instead on creating a regulatory framework that fosters innovation while protecting investors.
If this happens, Ripple’s legal victory would not only be judicial but also symbolic of a broader industry win against regulatory overreach.
Additionally, former Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent, a known Bitcoin advocate, has joined the growing list of pro-crypto figures in U.S. politics. His influence could steer financial regulatory bodies towards more balanced crypto policies, indirectly supporting Ripple’s case.
These developments create a favourable backdrop for Ripple, reinforcing the prediction of a 90% winning probability. The SEC’s softened stance, combined with legal precedents and political shifts, paints a picture of an agency retreating from its hardline position.
Read more about XRP:
XRP to USD: Convert Ripple to US Dollar
XRP (XRP), Market Cap, Price Today & Chart History
Conclusion
Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC has been a rollercoaster ride for the crypto industry, influencing regulatory discourse and XRP’s market performance.
However, recent developments suggest the tide is turning decisively in Ripple’s favour. The case’s relocation to the appellate court, coupled with the SEC’s changing leadership and regulatory approach, signals a high probability, around 90%, of Ripple securing an absolute victory.
This potential win would not only clear the legal cloud hanging over XRP but also set a precedent for how cryptocurrencies are regulated in the U.S.
As the industry awaits the next court developments, Ripple’s case serves as a beacon of hope for crypto advocates seeking fair and clear regulatory treatment.
For those considering XRP as an investment, the current legal landscape presents both risks and opportunities.
Platforms like Bitrue offer a reliable way to trade XRP, especially for those looking to capitalise on potential price movements driven by legal outcomes. As Ripple edges closer to victory, the future of XRP looks increasingly promising.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. Why is Ripple likely to win its case against the SEC?
Ripple’s strong legal arguments, favourable court rulings, and the SEC’s softened regulatory stance contribute to a high probability—around 90%—of Ripple winning the case.
2. Does the SEC’s website removal of Ripple’s case mean it’s over?
No, the case has not been dismissed. It has moved to the Court of Appeals, reflecting a procedural change as it advances through the legal system.
3. How will Ripple’s potential victory affect XRP’s price?
A legal win would likely boost investor confidence, potentially driving XRP’s price higher as regulatory uncertainty clears and adoption increases.
Investor Caution
While the crypto hype has been exciting, remember that the crypto space can be volatile. Always conduct your research, assess your risk tolerance, and consider the long-term potential of any investment.
Bitrue Official Website:
Website: https://www.bitrue.com/
Sign Up: https://www.bitrue.com/user/register
Disclaimer: The views expressed belong exclusively to the author and do not reflect the views of this platform. This platform and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy or suitability of the information provided. It is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial or investment advice.
Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute financial or investment advice.
