Bitcoin Traders Watch For 'Manipulation' Of Yearly Close, As BTC Q4 Breaks 50%

As 2023 draws to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) traders are closely monitoring the potential for market manipulation as the cryptocurrency closes its yearly candle. With the price of Bitcoin hovering around $95,000 on December 29, volatility and liquidity “games” are becoming more apparent across exchange order books, sparking concerns over potential price manipulation. This comes despite Bitcoin’s impressive 50%+ Q4 gains, which have been almost on par with the rally seen in 2023.

Bitcoin’s Yearly Close and Market Liquidity Games

Bitcoin has seen a steady price range as it approached the close of the year, with traders cautious after downside volatility throughout the week. The BTC/USD market remained wedged in a tight range as the market faced increasing uncertainty. While the overall quarterly returns are solid, questions are arising over how the final few days of the year may impact Bitcoin’s trajectory into 2024.

Liquidity analysis, which looks at order books across exchanges, is offering mixed signals. Some market observers noted the potential for price manipulation as large market entities make moves to control Bitcoin’s price action. One of the key levels to watch is the $97,300 mark — a crucial resistance that could signal further bullish momentum if broken.

Volatility Warning: Red Signals From Trading Indicators

Material Indicators, a well-known trading resource, issued a cautionary note on low-timeframe BTC price action. According to its analysis, two of its proprietary trading tools, FireCharts and Trend Precognition, flashed “red” signals, warning that Bitcoin’s price may not break through the high of the previous day.

The FireCharts tool highlighted a new $86 million bid ladder, pushing BTC’s price upward from the lows. However, the Trend Precognition A1 algorithm — in tandem with a red signal from the A2+ algorithm — suggested that a push above $97.3k would invalidate the current bearish signals. This cautionary outlook has left many traders hesitant to take positions, as they wait for a clearer breakout or further consolidation.

Popular trader Skew also shared his skepticism, showing a chart of buy liquidity shifting higher towards the spot price. This kind of liquidity shift is often seen as a sign that large market players are attempting to steer price action, possibly indicating upside if these bids remain in place.

Bitcoin’s Q4 Performance: Positive, But Caution Remains

Despite the indecision and manipulation concerns, Bitcoin’s performance in Q4 remains competitive. At around $95,000, Bitcoin was only down 1.25% for December, with the Q4 rally providing gains of over 50%. This puts Bitcoin’s Q4 upside almost on par with its 2023 performance, a promising sign for many traders who still expect further bullish continuation.

While many analysts have predicted a correction or lower lows before the bull market fully resumes, some seasoned traders remain optimistic, believing that the best part of the rally is yet to come. Among these is Titan of Crypto, a popular trader who shared a long-term “roadmap” for Bitcoin, indicating that BTC may continue its ascent to macro highs before entering a distribution phase.

Using Wyckoff analysis, Titan highlighted the potential for Bitcoin to reach new macro highs, with a subsequent distribution phase acting as a potential market top before a broader correction.

Potential for Market Manipulation Into 2024

As Bitcoin approaches its yearly close, market manipulation concerns are growing. The liquidity games being played by large entities on exchanges, combined with the warnings from trading indicators, suggest that Bitcoin may be subjected to artificial price control in the coming days.

The $97,300 price point remains critical for traders watching for bullish momentum or a reversal. If Bitcoin can break through this resistance level, it could signal further upside. However, if the red signals from the indicators prove accurate, Bitcoin may face more consolidation or a correction into the new year.

For traders, the next few days could prove pivotal, as Bitcoin’s price action sets the tone for 2024. The focus will likely remain on how liquidity plays out across the exchanges, with large market players continuing to influence the price ahead of the yearly close.

Looking Ahead

As the calendar flips to 2024, Bitcoin faces a critical juncture. The dynamics of liquidity, potential manipulation, and market sentiment could all play significant roles in shaping the future of BTC. With 50%-plus gains in Q4, Bitcoin is well-positioned to continue its bull market. However, the volatility and potential for market manipulation suggest that the coming months will be full of challenges.

Traders will need to remain vigilant, balancing caution with opportunity as the year’s end approaches. Whether Bitcoin breaks past the $97,300 resistance or faces further consolidation, the next few weeks will likely set the stage for the next major price move in the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

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FAQs

Why is Bitcoin's yearly close significant for traders? Bitcoin's yearly close is a critical marker that can set the tone for its market trajectory in the coming year. Traders closely monitor this period for potential price manipulation, particularly by large market entities seeking to influence the price near key resistance levels, such as $97,300. This close also reflects Bitcoin's overall performance and may signal broader market sentiment.

What are liquidity games, and how do they impact Bitcoin’s price? Liquidity games occur when large market players strategically place or remove bids and asks on exchange order books to influence price action. This can create artificial price movements, affecting smaller traders. Currently, a significant bid ladder around $86 million is pushing BTC’s price, but skepticism remains about whether this will lead to sustained bullish momentum.

What should traders watch for heading into 2024? Traders should keep an eye on key resistance levels, particularly the $97,300 mark, which could determine whether Bitcoin sees further upside or a correction. Additionally, indicators like FireCharts and Trend Precognition are warning of potential volatility. Understanding liquidity shifts and staying cautious amid manipulation concerns will be crucial for navigating early 2024 market movements.

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