Arthur Hayes Predicts Everything Will be Up Only From Now! Will the Market Recover?

Arthur Hayes, the influential co-founder of BitMEX, has once again sparked debate across the crypto and financial communities. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Hayes offered a bold market prediction: everything is about to go "up only"—especially Bitcoin and other risk assets.

According to Hayes, recent macroeconomic conditions and central bank signals point to one clear opportunity: it’s time to buy everything. This confident stance comes amid rising bond yields, increased global tension, and signs of stress in traditional financial markets.

Arthur Hayes Sees Liquidity Crisis as a Bullish Trigger

Hayes based his market prediction on key developments in the U.S. Treasury bond market. He highlighted the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5%—a level he believes will force the Federal Reserve’s hand. When yields spike this high, financial institutions often face liquidity constraints, potentially triggering a policy response from central banks.

In Hayes' view, this situation makes risk assets—including Bitcoin—highly attractive. If the Fed steps in with liquidity injections, a surge in asset prices could follow. “We will be getting more policy responses this weekend if this keeps up,” Hayes wrote. “We are about to enter UP ONLY mode for BTC.”

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Federal Reserve Signals Readiness to Intervene

Supporting Hayes’ market outlook is recent commentary from Susan Collins, President of the Boston Federal Reserve. In an interview with the Financial Times, Collins reassured markets that the Fed has several tools at its disposal to maintain market stability.

While she emphasized that interest rate cuts are not the Fed’s first response option, Collins noted that other mechanisms could be deployed to preserve market function and liquidity. “The core interest rate tool we use for monetary policy is certainly not the only tool in the toolkit and probably not the best way to address challenges of liquidity or market functioning,” she said.

This aligns with Hayes’ prediction that the Fed may soon pivot to more aggressive support, which could lift markets sharply in the near future.

Global Trade Tensions Add Complexity

However, the bullish tone from Hayes comes amid rising geopolitical and economic headwinds. President Donald Trump recently introduced a controversial new tariff regime targeting Chinese imports. While the administration paused full implementation for 90 days, tariff rates have already jumped to 145% for key Chinese goods.

In response, China raised tariffs on American imports to between 84% and 125%. These tariff wars threaten to drive up inflation in the U.S., worsen supply chain disruptions, and reduce global economic growth.

Despite these uncertainties, Hayes remains confident that central bank intervention will outweigh short-term volatility. The anticipated liquidity injections could drive a rebound not just in Bitcoin but across all risk-on markets.

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"Up Only": Reality or Hope?

Arthur Hayes has become known for his provocative takes and bold market predictions, and this latest call is no exception. His belief that “everything will be up only from now” echoes similar sentiments during past downturns, some of which proved accurate.

Critics argue that this optimism may be premature given the broader macroeconomic risks—including inflation, geopolitical tensions, and slowing economic growth. Yet many in the crypto community resonate with Hayes' stance, especially as traditional markets wobble and central banks inch closer to fresh stimulus.

Conclusion

Whether Arthur Hayes’ latest prediction comes true remains to be seen. But his call to "buy everything" underscores a growing belief that monetary intervention will return as the dominant force in global markets.

As investors brace for what’s next, the question remains: Will the market recover—and more importantly, is now the right time to go all-in?

FAQ

What did Arthur Hayes predict about the market?

Arthur Hayes predicted that the market is entering an "up only" phase, especially for Bitcoin and other risk assets. He believes that rising bond yields and potential Federal Reserve intervention could drive a bullish rally.

Why does Arthur Hayes believe asset prices will rise?

Hayes points to the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeding 4.5% as a sign of stress in financial markets. He believes the Federal Reserve will step in with liquidity support, which could boost asset prices, including crypto.

How do global tariffs affect Hayes' prediction?

Although Hayes is optimistic, the recent spike in global tariffs—particularly between the US and China—adds economic uncertainty. However, he argues that central bank intervention could offset these risks and lead to market recovery.