Analyzing the Futures Market: Is Bitcoin Preparing for a New Bullish Momentum?

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen significant price fluctuations recently, driven by a variety of macroeconomic factors. The latest surge in Bitcoin’s price to over $91,000 on April 22, 2025, has sparked renewed optimism among investors, with many speculating that Bitcoin could be preparing for a breakout, possibly reaching the $95,000 mark.

However, a deeper look into the Bitcoin futures market and the underlying sentiment reveals a more cautious outlook. 

In this article, we explore whether Bitcoin is truly preparing for a bullish momentum, analyzing key data points and market factors.

Bitcoin's Recent Surge and the Macroeconomic Landscape

On April 22, Bitcoin hit a 45-day high above $91,000, coinciding with gold prices reaching new all-time highs. The price surge occurred against the backdrop of a global economic uncertainty, with investors increasingly concerned about a potential recession and ongoing trade tensions. Bitcoin’s price action is often seen as a hedge against economic instability, which may explain its recent gains.

The price increase came amidst a shift in market sentiment, with a potential de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the trade war with China had become "unsustainable," which may have alleviated some of the pessimism surrounding global markets. 

Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump's criticisms of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's interest rate policy added to the debate over the U.S. economy’s performance.

Also read Trump's Hesitant Stance on the Fed: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Tariff Worries and Policies

Despite this macroeconomic backdrop, Bitcoin's gains have not been entirely aligned with the broader stock market’s performance. 

Bitcoin has risen by 6.3% over the past 30 days, while traditional assets like U.S. government bonds have seen increased demand, causing a decrease in Treasury yields. 

This discrepancy underscores Bitcoin’s role as a non-correlated asset, with its price movements driven more by sentiment and demand within the crypto space than by traditional economic indicators.

Bitcoin Futures Premium and Market Sentiment

One of the key metrics for analyzing Bitcoin’s future price potential is the Bitcoin futures market, particularly the annualized premium. Typically, in neutral markets, the Bitcoin futures premium hovers between 5% and 10%, as traders demand compensation for the longer settlement periods of futures contracts. 

As of the latest data, Bitcoin's annualized premium stands at 6%, which indicates a neutral market sentiment. While this is not a particularly bullish sign, it does suggest that Bitcoin’s price is experiencing moderate demand, especially considering its recent price surge.

However, this premium is not as high as what is typically seen during periods of strong bullish momentum, indicating that traders may not yet fully anticipate a sustained rally toward the $95,000 mark. 

Additionally, the premium has failed to rise above 10%, which further supports the view that traders remain cautious.

Price Action and the $90K Zone

A major psychological hurdle for Bitcoin remains its ability to sustain price levels above $90,000. Traders are still haunted by Bitcoin's inability to hold above this mark in early March 2025. Bitcoin tested the $95,000 level on March 3, only to plummet to $81,464 the following day. 

This lack of consistency has led to doubts among bullish investors, who have yet to regain full confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to break through key resistance levels.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading approximately 16% below its all-time high of $109,346, which occurred on January 20, 2025. 

Despite the market’s recent optimism, this price gap suggests that Bitcoin may still be grappling with the aftereffects of the market-wide sell-off. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s price drawdown has been less severe compared to major tech stocks like Tesla, Amazon, and Meta (Facebook), which have experienced deeper declines during the same period.

Bitcoin’s Options Market and Limited Bullish Sentiment

To further assess the potential for Bitcoin’s price rally, it is important to examine the Bitcoin options market, where professional traders place their bets on future price movements. One key indicator to watch is the 25% delta skew, which measures the difference in pricing between put (sell) options and call (buy) options. 

A positive skew indicates that traders expect a downturn, while a negative skew reflects bullish sentiment.

Currently, the 25% delta skew for Bitcoin is at -2%, suggesting that traders are not particularly optimistic about a significant price increase in the near term. This is in contrast to previous periods of bullish sentiment, where the skew was much more negative, indicating stronger demand for call options. 

The last period of bullish sentiment occurred in late January 2025, when Bitcoin briefly traded near $105,000.

This limited enthusiasm in the options market further reinforces the idea that while Bitcoin has the potential to revisit the $95,000 level, it is far from guaranteed. 

The cautious stance in the options market suggests that institutional investors and market makers are not yet positioning for a sustained rally.

Also read Looking at 1 Year After the Bitcoin Halving: Impact on BTC Price and Adoption

The Path to $95,000: What Needs to Happen?

Bitcoin’s future price trajectory will largely depend on several factors:

Breaking Key Resistance Levels

Bitcoin needs to convincingly break through its immediate resistance at $90,000 and $95,000 before it can test new highs. Traders will be looking for confirmation of sustained momentum above these levels.

Continued Positive Sentiment

The broader economic context, especially developments in the U.S.-China trade relations and investor sentiment, will play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price movement. Positive news could spur a renewed rally, while economic uncertainty could dampen investor confidence.

Institutional Demand and Participation

The continued interest from institutional investors, particularly in the form of Bitcoin ETFs and other financial products, will help drive long-term price growth. Bitcoin’s integration into traditional financial markets, such as through ETFs, could provide the necessary liquidity and demand for Bitcoin to reach higher price levels.

Also read Bitcoin (BTC) Price Hit $200,000 – Scenario by Standard Chartered

Conclusion: Is Bitcoin Ready for $95,000?

Bitcoin’s recent surge to $91,000 has sparked renewed optimism, with many analysts projecting that a breakout above $95,000 is possible. However, despite the bullish sentiment, there are key concerns in the futures and options markets that suggest a more cautious outlook.

While Bitcoin has the potential to rise, it will need to overcome significant resistance and demonstrate sustained positive momentum before reaching new all-time highs.

BTC to USDT via Bitrue Market

In summary, Bitcoin is not yet in a clear uptrend that guarantees a rally to $95,000. Market participants are waiting for more clarity, particularly in terms of economic developments and trading volumes, before making more aggressive bets on Bitcoin’s future price movement.

FAQs

1. Why is Bitcoin struggling to break through the $90,000 mark?

Bitcoin’s price has faced challenges sustaining above $90,000 due to historical volatility and resistance at key levels. The market remains cautious, especially after previous failed attempts to maintain higher levels.

2. What is the significance of the 25% delta skew in Bitcoin options?

The delta skew measures the balance between bullish and bearish sentiment in the market. A negative skew indicates more demand for call options, signaling optimism, while a neutral or positive skew suggests caution among traders.

3. How does the U.S.-China trade situation affect Bitcoin’s price?

The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China create global economic uncertainty, which often leads investors to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin. A resolution or de-escalation in trade tensions could boost investor confidence and Bitcoin’s price.

4. What are the key factors that will drive Bitcoin to $95,000?

For Bitcoin to reach $95,000, it must break through key resistance levels, maintain positive sentiment, and see continued institutional participation. Economic developments and market momentum will play crucial roles in achieving this target.
Bitrue Official Website:

Website: https://www.bitrue.com/

Sign Up: https://www.bitrue.com/user/register

Disclaimer: The views expressed belong exclusively to the author and do not reflect the views of this platform. This platform and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy or suitability of the information provided. It is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial or investment advice.