Analyst Predicts Bitcoin's New Bullish Momentum! Can the Bitcoin Dollar Negative Correlation Holds?
2025-04-16
Bitcoin may be gearing up for another bullish run, according to a crypto analyst known for accurately predicting the 2021 market crash. The signal comes from a key technical indicator, the weekly LMACD (Logarithmic Moving Average Convergence Divergence) histogram, which is now showing signs of positive momentum for the first time in over four months.
Meet Dave the Wave!
Dave the Wave, a well-followed pseudonymous analyst on X (formerly Twitter), pointed out that Bitcoin’s LMACD histogram bars are shrinking in the red zone—a potential early signal of a trend reversal. The LMACD is often used to measure the strength and direction of momentum in price trends. When the histogram begins to shift from large red bars to smaller ones, it suggests that bearish pressure is waning and bullish momentum could be building.
BTC Technicals Hint at Sustained Uptrend
According to Dave the Wave, Bitcoin hasn't entered bear territory—defined by the MACD line dipping below the zero mark—since February 2023. This continued positioning above zero supports the idea of an ongoing bull market. As he states: “Bull markets climb a wall of worry.”
This bullish sentiment is not just a short-term anomaly. Long-term indicators like the LMACD offer insight into broader trends, and the current shift could indicate a more sustained recovery. Historical data supports this interpretation. For example, past LMACD reversals have often preceded multi-month rallies, as seen in 2017, 2020, and late 2023.
Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Could Signal BTC Outperformance
Another point raised by the analyst involves the BTC-to-Gold ratio. This ratio compares the value of Bitcoin to that of gold, offering a relative measure of investor confidence in digital versus traditional stores of value. According to his analysis, the BTC/gold ratio appears to have peaked, potentially suggesting that Bitcoin could outperform gold in the near future.
Source: Dave the Wave/X
This is especially relevant given recent macroeconomic trends. Gold has seen renewed interest due to inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty, yet Bitcoin has kept pace—sometimes even exceeding gold’s gains. A shift in this ratio, therefore, could indicate renewed investor preference for risk-on digital assets.
Out of the 'Buy Zone'—Is It Too Late to Buy Bitcoin?
Dave the Wave also referenced Bitcoin’s positioning on his Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC), a long-term tool designed to forecast market cycle highs and lows. The LGC removes short-term noise and focuses on structural trends within the market.
Source: Dave the Wave/X
According to his chart, Bitcoin hasn’t been in the "buy zone" of this curve since it was trading around $40,000. This implies that the current price—hovering above $84,000—may still be early in a larger bullish cycle, albeit past the ideal accumulation phase. For long-term investors, this may reinforce the idea that current levels still offer growth potential, even if deep discounts are no longer on the table.
Bitcoin Dollar Negative Correlation Holds: A Macro Perspective
One of the underlying questions is whether Bitcoin’s historical negative correlation with the U.S. dollar will persist. Traditionally, Bitcoin tends to move inversely to the dollar; a weakening dollar often leads to a rise in Bitcoin prices as investors seek alternative stores of value. However, this relationship can fluctuate depending on macroeconomic conditions, such as Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, and global liquidity.
Recent data from CoinMetrics and The Block Research shows a strengthening of this negative correlation, especially as U.S. inflation data continues to drive expectations for rate cuts later this year. If the dollar weakens due to dovish monetary policy, Bitcoin could benefit from capital rotation out of fiat into crypto assets.
Bitcoin Price (BTC), Market Cap, Price Today & Chart History
Bitcoin's New Bullish Momentum? Institutions and ETF Inflows Add Fuel to the Fire
Adding to the bullish narrative is the continued influx of institutional capital. According to Glassnode and CryptoQuant, recent weeks have seen a spike in Bitcoin held in custody by ETF providers like BlackRock and Fidelity. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have driven increased retail and institutional demand, with net inflows exceeding billions since their approval earlier in 2024.
This institutional demand reduces available supply, creating upward pressure on price, especially if retail interest follows suit. The rise in ETF activity is seen as a major catalyst for Bitcoin’s current price stability and could support further gains if macro conditions remain favorable.
Conclusion
While technical indicators like the LMACD histogram suggest that Bitcoin might be entering a new bullish phase, it's important to remember that market conditions can shift quickly. The BTC/USD dynamic, inflation reports, and central bank decisions will all play crucial roles in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory over the next quarter.
Still, the convergence of positive momentum indicators, a favorable macro environment, and sustained institutional interest paints a promising picture for Bitcoin in the months ahead. For traders and investors, now may be a good time to reassess positions and prepare for what could be the start of another strong upward trend.
BTC to USD: Convert Bitcoin to US Dollar
FAQ
1. What is the LMACD indicator, and why is it important for Bitcoin?
The LMACD (Logarithmic Moving Average Convergence Divergence) measures momentum in long-term trends. A bullish signal on this indicator suggests Bitcoin could be entering a strong upward phase.
2. How does the BTC-to-Gold ratio impact Bitcoin's price outlook?
A rising BTC/gold ratio may indicate that Bitcoin is gaining value relative to gold, often signaling increased investor confidence in digital assets over traditional stores of value.
3. Why is the Bitcoin-dollar correlation significant?
Bitcoin often moves inversely to the U.S. dollar. If the dollar weakens due to interest rate cuts or inflation, Bitcoin tends to rise as investors seek alternative assets.
4. Is Bitcoin still in a good buying position?
While Bitcoin has moved out of the "buy zone" of the logarithmic growth curve, analysts suggest it may still be early in a bullish cycle, offering further upside potential.
Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute financial or investment advice.
