Is TON Preparing for A Huge Correction? Looking at the Holders Data

Toncoin (TON) had a promising start to 2025, with its price breaking above the $3.95 resistance level in late March and making higher lows. This movement suggested that the cryptocurrency could be gearing up for a bullish recovery, potentially reaching $4.80.

However, in the first days of April, the market took a sharp turn. Whale activity surged, daily transactions spiked, and alongside this, a sudden sell-off took hold. In just eight days, TON lost a significant 26.6% of its value.

Now, the burning question is: Is Toncoin preparing for a huge correction? Let’s take a closer look at the data, particularly focusing on the behavior of its holders.

READ ALSO: Toncoin Surges 30% in a Week! Can TON Maintain Its Momentum?

The Failed Recovery and The Bearish Turn

Toncoin had shown clear signs of bullish potential through March, with a breakout above $3.95 and continued higher lows. This pattern is often seen as a positive technical indicator, signaling further gains.

However, the rise in whale activity in early April created an unsettling shift in sentiment. While whale transactions often signal increased interest in the asset, they can also be a precursor to large-scale sell-offs.

The real concerns for Toncoin bulls started to emerge when the price began to plummet, falling by 32% in just five days.

This sharp decline has many wondering whether the asset is headed for a larger correction, especially after the failure to maintain momentum past the $3.95 resistance level. At the time of writing, Toncoin had breached the $3.5 support zone, which had previously acted as a key point of support.

Sellers Gaining Strength? Examining the Holders’ Data

A key metric to analyze the strength of the selling pressure is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). The SOPR tracks whether Toncoin is being sold at a profit or a loss. When the SOPR drops below 1, it indicates that coins are being sold at a loss.

At the end of March, the SOPR climbed above 1, signaling that Toncoin was briefly being sold at a profit. However, this upward momentum didn’t last long, and the SOPR quickly turned negative again, confirming that more coins are being sold at a loss as the market sentiment shifts bearish.

The HODLer Net Position Change metric is another critical tool for understanding the broader market sentiment. This metric tracks the monthly position change of long-term holders (HODLers).

In the months of February and March, accumulation was occurring as the price of Toncoin trended downward, suggesting that long-term investors were confident in the asset’s future.’

However, recent data shows a sharp decline in the HODLer net position change, indicating that long-term holders have begun selling their positions, contributing to the current bearish trend.

Whale Activity and Its Impact on Toncoin

Whale activity is often a strong indicator of market trends, especially for assets like Toncoin, which have a relatively lower market cap compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. As whales move large quantities of Toncoin, their actions can significantly affect the price, either by creating bullish momentum or exacerbating bearish sentiment.

In early April, the surge in whale transactions was followed by an immediate drop in price, suggesting that whales were selling off their holdings.

This large-scale distribution of TON is a worrying sign, particularly when paired with the weak SOPR and HODLer net position change metrics. The market’s inability to bounce back after hitting the $3.5 support zone further reinforces the bearish outlook.

Technical Indicators Point to Bearish Pressure

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is another important indicator to consider. The CMF measures the amount of money flowing into and out of an asset, with positive values suggesting strong buying pressure and negative values signaling selling pressure.

When the CMF was above +0.05 in mid-March, it indicated that capital inflows were strong, supporting the bullish momentum. However, the CMF has since dropped to -0.14, signaling high selling pressure and confirming that bears are in control of the market.

Toncoin’s recent price chart reflects this bearish shift. After the bullish breakout above $3.95, the price was unable to maintain momentum, resulting in a market structure break.

The current price action suggests that the market sentiment has shifted from optimism to caution, and the bears are in control. If Toncoin fails to hold above the $3.5 support zone, it could face further downside risks.

READ ALSO: Prediksi Harga Toncoin (TON) 2024-2030: Analisis Harga

Conclusion

Toncoin’s price action over the past few weeks has been a clear sign of market uncertainty.While there was a strong bullish attempt in March, the surge in whale activity, the drop in the SOPR, and the negative HODLER net position change all point towards a growing bearish sentiment.

The inability of Toncoin to hold the $3.5 support zone adds to the concern that a larger correction may be looming.

The data suggests that sellers are becoming stronger than buyers, and the market is likely entering a distribution phase.

Toncoin’s price could face further declines if the current trends continue, particularly if whale activity continues to dominate and long-term holders continue to sell off their positions. Investors should be cautious and monitor the price action closely for signs of a potential correction.

FAQs

1. Why is Toncoin’s price dropping despite the bullish signals in March?

The price of Toncoin has been dropping due to a combination of factors, including increased whale activity and a shift from accumulation to distribution by long-term holders. As whales and holders begin to sell off their positions, it has led to increased selling pressure, overpowering the previous bullish momentum.

2. What does the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicate about Toncoin’s price?

The SOPR tracks whether Toncoin is being sold at a profit or a loss. When the SOPR drops below 1, it signals that coins are being sold at a loss, indicating a shift in market sentiment toward bearishness. After a brief period of profitability in March, the SOPR has turned negative, suggesting that more Toncoin is being sold at a loss.

3. Is Toncoin preparing for a huge correction?

The data suggests that Toncoin is indeed showing signs of a potential correction. The shift in HODLer net position, increased whale activity, and negative technical indicators all point to a bearish outlook. If the price continues to struggle around the $3.5 support zone, it could indicate further declines ahead.